Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
